2023 Year In Review Market Report 31 Jan 2024 2:31 PM (last year)

In this first edition of the Monthly Outline for 2024, we recap 2023 and look at what might be in store for 2024. In addition to the usual Monthly Mortgage & Stats Outline reports, we are very pleased to include the following additional items (full details and links are included later in the email)

Bank of Canada’s Rate Announcement: Commentary & Links

2024 Economic Calendar: Key Dates to Know!

Tax Time & Mortgages Guide: A Critical Combination

At the bottom of this post you will find detailed Executive Summary reports for each region in TRREB. Each Executive Summary Report includes a map of the included zones and a 17 page summary for each property type (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, condos) ​ The Information / statistics you can find in each Executive Summary Report include:

Data comparing the – 1, 3, 5 and 10 year sales averages.

Stats categories – Sales, New Listings, Active Listings, Average Price, Months of Inventory (MOI), Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR)

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Please find below the links to this month’s special edition of the Mortgage & Economic Outline Report and accompanying video.  Topics covered within this report include:

Report Contents: Bank of Canada Rate Announcement & AnalysisMajor Banks’ Overnight Rate Forecast for 2024 and 2025Interest Rate and Home Price / Sales CorrelationBond Yields Have Dropped Since October – Why it mattersRenew Crisis Ahead – Or more smoke than fire?A Deep Dive on Condo Supply – Opportunities ahead?

Bank of Canada Leaves Rate Unchanged

On January 24th, the Bank of Canada once again held its overnight rate at 5.00% for the 4th consecutive meeting (the last increase was July 2023). We’re cautiously optimistic that the next move will be downward as inflation begins to ease across the economy. The Bank of Canada stated: “The Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025”. While the Bank “is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation”, their explicit statement from December that the Bank “remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed” was not included in this announcement. This potentially signals a shift from whether interest rates are high enough, to how long until they can begin to be lowered. The next Bank of Canada meeting is on March 6th, 2024. Are you looking to make a purchase in the next 30 to 90 days? Over the past three months, bond yields have fallen dramatically in anticipation that the Bank of Canada may be done raising rates. The impact? Fixed mortgage rates have also fallen. If you are interested in discussing your options, please reach out to us today for more information.

Link – January 2024 Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

Link – Jan 24, 2024 – Bank of Canada Press Release

Key Dates to Know!

Wondering where rates are headed in 2024?  While no one has a crystal ball, there are certain dates that can cause waves in the mortgage market.  To help calm the waters, we’ve prepared a 2024 economic calendar with key dates of importance.  While we haven’t included every date, we are trying to highlight the most relevant items that could impact both fixed and variable rates, as well as the overall mortgage market. Visit our blog article here for a full description of how the below reports/announcement types can impact the mortgage market.  Our calendar provides specific dates throughout 2024 for the following key reports and announcements:

“Bank of Canada Rate” = Bank of Canada Meeting / Rate Announcement Dates

“Fed Rate” = US Federal Reserve Meeting / Rate Announcement Dates

“Jobs Report” = Labour Force Survey (Statistics Canada)

“CPI / Inflation Canada” = Consumer Price Index (Statistics Canada)

“CPI / Inflation US” = Consumer Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

“GDP (Monthly)” = Gross domestic product by industry (Statistics Canada)

“GDP (Quarterly)” = Gross domestic product, income and expenditure (Statistics Canada)

2024 Tax Time & Mortgages – A Critical Combination

T4As, T4s, T1s, T5s, Taxes, Taxes, Taxes! When it comes to mortgages, it is never too early to start planning. With the income tax filing season quickly approaching, it is a critical time to review how your tax filing may positively or negatively impact your purchasing power (or refinancing options) in 2024 and beyond. The purpose of this guide is to provide some key considerations for self-employed individuals or employees/contractors that earned variable income such as bonuses, commission, or overtime during 2023. If you are wondering how your upcoming tax return may impact your mortgage options and/or purchasing power, please reach out us today to help.

The below list of articles and videos are curated from major news outlets across Canada and licensed and formatted for easy sharing across social media:

Bank of Canada Keeps Key Rate at 5%, Says Talks Have Shifted Away From More Hikes (The Globe and Mail)

VIDEO (TD Chief Economist): What The Bank of Canada Should Be Paying Attention To (Financial Post)

Prospect of Bank of Canada Rate Cuts is Boosting Canadians’ View On The Economy (Financial Post)

Interest Rate Cuts, Return To Growth On Economic Horizon, Deloitte Says (The Canadian Press)

All 416 Report   |   Core 416 Report  |  All 905 Report

Halton Report   |   Peel Report  |  Oakville Report  |  Burlington Report

York Report  |  Durham Report  |  Simcoe Report

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Heather Hadden as seen in Forbes New York’s 2 Jan 2024 8:05 AM (last year)

“Top 10 Women Leaders Who Conquered The Year 2023”

With a remarkable career spanning 16 years and over a billion dollars in real estate sold, Heather Hadden is a force to be reckoned with in Toronto’s real estate scene. Ranked in the top 0.1% of Toronto realtors, Heather’s expertise extends far beyond the numbers, with a wealth of experience totaling over 20,000 hours. As the Team Leader at Hadden Homes, Heather’s journey to real estate success wasn’t a conventional one. Initially a teacher, she pivoted to the world of listings, drawing inspiration from her sister’s successful real estate career. Heather’s ability to connect with people, honed through her sociology studies at Queen’s University, has been a driving force in her business.

Reflecting on her transition, Heather notes, “Best decision of my life. I found I LOVED connecting with people, and nothing compared to the high excitement of helping them find their perfect home.”Beyond her professional achievements, Heather has navigated various personal milestones, including marriage, the birth of her daughter, divorce, and multiple relocations. These life experiences have contributed to her empathetic approach to real estate, understanding the challenges clients face in moments of transition.”I knew how hard these transitions had been for me. Whether it was buying a first home, needing to upsize, needing to downsize, retiring parents, I’ve been there,” Heather shares. “Over the past 16 years, my team and I have been through every situation under the sun, and are equipped to make this transition as easy as possible for you.

Heather’s extensive knowledge of the city and housing market, coupled with her proven sales prowess, places Hadden Homes in the top 0.1% of agents in the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Their listings boast an impressive average of just 11.5 days on the market, selling for 105% of the list price. Proudly leading Hadden Homes, Heather has developed the Hadden Homes Method, designed to eliminate the stress and chaos of the sale, ensuring a seamless and easy process for clients. Beyond the numbers, Heather’s passion lies in helping other agents build businesses they love including her recently launched 7-Figure Agent Accelerator course, making her an influential figure in Toronto’s real estate community.

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High Appeal, Low investment. 19 Feb 2021 6:58 AM (4 years ago)

Tips on how to update your home on a tight timeline and budget.

Frequently clients hire us soon after purchasing a new home knowing they have renovations to do or simply need our help with furnishings and the finishing touches. Subsequently we help homeowners looking to sell, who are unsure on what updates they should make to achieve the best impact for potential buyers. From the front door to the basement, here are some useful tips on how to update a home with high appeal and a low investment.

Curb appeal – Be an attention seeker! Be creative, do something that will get your home noticed, while still being tasteful. Paint your front door a bold colour, with a grey exterior go for yellow or a fresh blue, with a red/brown exterior go for charcoal grey. We like to tell our clients to add some jewellery to their exteriors – change up standard exterior light fixtures for ones that are bold and make a statement to compliment your home. On the exterior your light fixtures, house numbers, mailbox and door hardware are easy fixes to get your home noticed and add some personality and charm. Make sure you keep finishes the same for these items, black or brushed silver are most popular. Finally, don’t forget about fabulous seasonal planters to highlight your front door.

Upon entering, the foyer is the place to set the tone for the home. If it is a casual home go for a sisal rug and a bench with accent cushions; or for a formal home dress it up with a dark geometric tile or rug and a sleek console with mirror above. When you are having showings or guests, fresh flowers on your foyer console is a nice touch and shows that you take pride in your home. Also make sure your home smells fresh and clean; avoid heavy scented air fresheners, they may tell your buyer or guest you are trying to mask something.

We all know the kitchen is the heart of the home, and we do a lot of kitchen renovations. It is best to seek a professional when considering any updates in a kitchen as it is one of the most expensive areas to renovate or update and will be a main deciding factor for a buyer on the purchase of your home. The best way to quickly update is by looking at replacing your door faces or get your existing doors painted. The most popular looks homeowners are asking for are fresh off white cabinetry or a darker warm grey paint or stain. Replacing laminate countertops will improve your kitchen’s appeal and add value. We are fans of marble countertops, although they can etch, stain easily. For those people looking for a more practical material while still trying to achieve a similar look, we advise looking at using quartz or more affordable product

While quartz can be costly, granite or a solid surface like Corian could be a more economical option. We recommend to not going too busy when selecting your countertop colour and pattern; keep them neutral to ensure their longevity. If you are budget conscious a place to save is on the backsplash. A simple, classic, porcelain subway tile will give you great timeless appeal. Also changing dated hardware on your cabinet doors is a fantastic way to update your cabinets without a lot of cost.

Like the kitchen; cabinets, countertops and tile will make the biggest impact in your bathrooms. Often painting out your existing bathroom’s vanity a fresh white or grey could be an easy way to transform your space. Splurge on beautiful floor tiles and the countertop; these items are worth it and will make an important impact. If your bathroom is neutral but lacks personality, staging by adding accessories will transform the feel of the room without great expense. We use art, shower curtains, window treatments, towels and bath accessories as easy ways to spruce up a bathroom and impress potential buyers.

Besides the exterior, foyer, kitchen, and bathrooms, basements are an important space that shouldn’t be forgotten. Often basements become packed with items for storage – clear them out! Homebuyers want to see the space so they can imagine it’s potential. We always recommend when finishing the basement, select flooring and trim that matches the rest of the home to create continuity. From the driveway to the basement, be thoughtful about how you update your home. Hire a professional and focus on highlighting your home’s unique character and charm through thoughtful updates.

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Buying in a “Tough Market” Doesn’t Have To Be So Tough 16 Feb 2021 8:32 AM (4 years ago)

The Toronto housing market has a reputation for being competitive, expensive and lucrative – characteristics that work in favour of home owners and sellers, but are creating some challenges for homebuyers entering the market. First-time homebuyers in particular will face some obstacles ahead this year. Here are some of my strategies for tackling this tough market.

Low inventory: Toronto is experiencing some inventory issues, particularly in low-rise housing, as buyers appeared to abandon their condo lifestyles in favour of detached homes that offered the benefit of more privacy and space during the lockdowns. Meanwhile, this caused a spike in condo inventory last fall, but this proved temporary. As condo prices declined, interest picked up and according to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), units are on the move again and if the trend continues, prices will soon follow.

For homebuyers, this means limited choice, multiple offers and high prices are the current market reality. Working with a professional real estate agent can help mitigate the stress associated with these challenges, while keeping things in perspective. To the buyer, a home is a very personal thing and where one may be tempted to enter into a bidding war, a good agent can and should advise you on where to draw the line. Remember, a home is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

High prices: Speaking of prices, in its 2021 market outlook, TRREB forecasted the average residential price in the GTA will top $1 million this year. Now, the GTA is a big place bordered by Oakville to the west, Oshawa to the east and Newmarket to the north. When you narrow it down Toronto proper, the average residential price will be well into seven figures.

Those who currently own a property and want to move around within the Toronto market (for example, upgrading into a larger home or downsizing into a smaller one) have more wiggle room – pun intended. First-time homebuyers, on the other hand, are often stuck between a rock (not owning a property) and a hard place (not being able to buy one). Thankfully, interest rates are on their side, as the cost of borrowing has never been cheaper. Given a solid down payment, flexibility when it comes to housing type and neighbourhood, and determination, homebuyers can still buy in this market at a price they can afford. Then, with time and growing equity, they too will have a chance to move up the property ladder.

Consult real estate professionals like us that can offer the best options now available to you, which may include condo or townhome living, or potentially a home with an income suite, to help pay down your mortgage and build your equity faster.

Toronto’s current seller’s market won’t be shifting any time soon. Demand for homes in only expected to intensify as borders and businesses reopen, and immigration resumes. The good news is Toronto and surrounding GTA ahead remains an attractive place to live, which bodes well for property values. As a homebuyer and sellers, this is the ultimate long-term goal.

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1 Jarvis Street Hamilton 4 Feb 2021 6:12 PM (4 years ago)

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19 Ashbourne Drive 21 Jan 2021 1:39 PM (4 years ago)

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December 2020 Market Report 20 Jan 2021 10:59 AM (4 years ago)

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Each Executive Summary Report is for a specific TRREB zone combination and includes a map of the included zones and a 1 page summary for each property type (detached, semi-detached, townhomes, condos)
​
The Information / statistics you can find in each Executive Summary Report include:

• Data comparing the – 1, 3, 5 and 10 year sales averages.

• Stats categories – Sales, New Listings, Active Listings, Average Price, Months of Inventory (MOI), Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR)

 

December Market Stats

_{Sales Volume / Number of Sales}

• _{905 Detached sales were up +58% // 416 Detached sales were up +42%}
• _{905 Semi-Detached sales were up +56% // 416 Semi-Detached sales were up +58%}
• _{905 Condo sales were up +74% // 416 Condo sales were up +76%}

 

In summary, December was a record month in terms of sales transactions for both the 416 as well as the 905. Inventory in the 416 continues to be historically high for condos and low for houses, with inventory being extremely low all across the 905.

In the 416 regions the slow down in foreign immigration (56,000 lower than 2019) is causing a short term rental surplus. Combine this with the new Airbnb rules (you can only rent your principal residence) and this has caused investors to list a historically high number of condos for sale.

In the 905, the mass local emigration from the city of more than 50,000 people has lead to unprecedented demand with a continued lack of inventory.

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_{Sales Prices}

• _{905 Detached prices were up +22.7% // 416 Detached prices were up +8.1%}
• _{905 Semi-Detached prices were up +17.4% // 416 Semi-Detached prices were up +15.3%}
• _{905 Condo prices were up +6.3% // 416 Condo prices were down -4.7%}

 

In summary, prices for detached properties continue to be up significantly year over year. In the 905 the further you move from the core, the higher the pricing increase. In the Toronto Core prices for detached are up 8.1% when compared to last December while in the overall 905 they are up over 22%.

With condos, we continue to see the same downward pressure on pricing as the market continue to see a flood of new listings each month. The 905 regions are seeing price growth in this category driven by significantly lower supply, while the core 416 saw prices drop by 4.7% year over year.

We anticipate this trend the begin reversing in the mid part of 2021 as immigration increases and locals begin to come back to live in the city. With our planned immigration it will only take a few months to absorb the current inventory levels for both rentals and sales, at which point prices will start back on inclines.

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Download the full local summaries through the links below. If you would like more local reports, they are available upon request.

Immigration Overview

Immigration is the driver behind the price growth of real estate in the GTA. It is important to note that Toronto has seen net emigration of locals for a number of years. This year has seen a record 50,000 people move away from the city in search of more space and more affordable properties.

Please keep in mind that our net overall immigration is still positive, with most years being significantly so. To put things into content, 50,000 locals have emigrated away from Toronto over the past 12 months, while national and international immigration in 2019 was 117,000. Based on an average household size of 2, that would mean approximately 34,000 properties needed in Toronto to support net immigration in that year.

Based on these numbers, it’s easy to understand how the current levels of inventory will be absorbed once immigration returns to full force.

Report Downloads

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485 Wellington 10 Jan 2021 4:34 PM (4 years ago)

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8 Wellesley Residences 10 Jan 2021 4:32 PM (4 years ago)

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