A total solar eclipse and its lunar shadow over Valencia de Don Juan turn a panorama into an experiment on the height and cooling of the atmosphere.
One of the most interesting aspects of the coronavirus is the time dependence of its infection rate. It determines how effective measures like quarantining can be. Spoiler: quite ineffective!
The next interesting question to ask when studying the coronavirus, is what is the effect of a mixed population which has different infection rates. That is, that some individuals are more infectious than others (e.g., a cashier in the supermarket vs. a farmer). Spoiler: it turns out that unless there are super-spreaders then all you care about is the arithmetic average of the transmission coefficient.
Armed with the data on the coronavirus such as the serial interval, incubation period, and the base growth rate, we are now in a position to start modeling the pandemic. Note that as the title suggests, these are simple models. Any conclusions drawn from this specific page should…
This is the first in a series of posts in which I study the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. My original goal was to understand the behavior of the pandemic. As a scientists my curiosity forces me to not to leave such problems untouched. I wanted to know what are the possible…
The I recently wrote an OpEd for the Epoch Times which tries to succinctly capture my main grievances with the global warming scare. Here is brought again with a few comments (and references) added at its end.
This paper made some waves in the Media recently. It is based on highly biased data selection, and therefore flawed to its bone. It shouldn't have passed refereeing.
An article interviewing me was removed yesterday from forbes. Instead, they published an article by Meteorologist Prof. Marshall Shepherd that claims that the sun has no effect on climate. That article, however, falls to the same pitfalls that pointed out on my blog yesterday.…
A few days ago I was interviewed by Doron Levin, for an article to appear online on forbes.com. After having seen a draft (to make sure that I am quoted correctly), I told him good luck with getting it published, as I doubted it will. Why? Because a year ago I was interviewed by…
Just over a week ago I gave a 20 minute talk (which lasted almost 22 min) about the role that the sun plays in global warming in the Heartland institute's climate conference in DC. Here it is brought again for posterity.
Last week I had the opportunity to talk in front of the Environment committee of the German Bundestag. It was quite an interesting experience, and frankly, something I would have considered unlikely before receiving the invitation. It was in fact the first time a climate…
Two months ago I wrote about the Cambridge Union Debate I participated in. The Cambridge Union has meanwhile posted the debate online. Here is my part of it. (It starts at 32m31s.) [VIDEO::https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=PL2gRaXMMkA&t=32m31s] I should add that…
Our new results published today in nature communications provide the last piece of a long studied puzzle. We finally found the actual physical mechanism linking between atmospheric ionization and the formation of cloud condensation nuclei. Thus, we now understand the complete…
Last week I participated in an interesting debate that was held at the Cambridge Union, the oldest debating club in the world (dating back to 1815. The invite was to be on the side opposing the proposition “This house would rather cool the planet than warm the economy”. Although…
Just over a week ago I received an interesting call from a science magazine reporter. He asked me what do I think about the recent discovery of the Quantum Electrodynamic (QED) produced vacuum birefringence around neutron stars. It was an interesting surprise as my colleague…
Willis Eschenbach had a post on wattsupwiththat.com attacking my post on this blog , which explains why the new sunspot reconstruction may be irrelevant to the solar climate link and also discusses the recent paper I have co-written. I am not writing it as comments on…
After being asked by 5 independent people about the new sunspot number reconstruction and that it doesn’t show that the sun should have contributed any warming to the 20 th century, I decided to write about it here. I have one word to describe it – irrelevant. It is also a good…
Two weeks ago a science magazine paper appeared claiming that once various systematic errors in the sea surface temperature are corrected for, the global warming “hiatus” is gone. Yep, vanished as if it was never there. According to the study, temperatures over the past 18 years…
Bill "the science guy" Nye says that I am a denier. I recently stumbled on a transcript of Bill “the science guy” Nye’s interview on CNN last week. In it, he said that climate skeptics (i.e., people like myself), are at least as bad as people who deny that smoking causes cancer.…
Last month I visited the U of Washington to give a talk in which I discussed the effects of cosmic rays on climate. At the end of it, not one, but two people independently asked me about Overholt et al. , which supposedly ruled out the idea that passages through the galactic…
Since I look for interesting science bits (mostly astro bits) for the Monday coffee of our astrophysics group, I realized that I could share it with the readers including some interpretation (and hopefully some added value) by your humble servant. So, here’s my try. If it works…
The recent bashing of Willie Soon from the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in the NY Times exemplifies, I think, how the climate debate has long left the realm of science, and it also demonstrates how scientific research is most often funded, quite the opposite of…
Since I began teaching "Order of Magnitude" physics a few years ago, I collected many examples of physics estimates from daily life (and the daily life of physicists... which I admit does not necessarily reflect the population as a whole). Here are several examples. More should…
An electric dipole is characterized by the dipole moment $d$ which depends on both the charge $e$ and a the separation $s$ (but not independently on each). Estimating the power radiated by an oscillating electric dipole is an excellent example for the usage of dimensional…
I was recently asked to write an article to “The Institute Letter” of Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, where I am spending a wonderful sabbatical year. It briefly describes a very interesting discovery that my colleagues and I made, which is that the 32 million year…
I just found out that a dear friend had passed away. Nigel Calder was the voice of rationality within a sea of extreme, something which is very much missing in the global warming debate. He didn't accept things for granted, but on the other hand didn't make extreme claims in the…
My name is Nir Shaviv. I am a full professor at the Racah Institute of Physics in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. My main research interests revolve around the following topics: - The behaviour of very luminous astrophysical objects, so luminous that their radiation pressure…
If you're wondering about the equation in the banner, it is the Lagrangian of the standard model . It is the most succinct way of writing the laws governing the strong, electromagnetic and weak forces and their interaction with the known particles. The origin of this hand written…
The IPCC summary for policy makers is out, and as I started writing these lines so was the last draft of the main report. Of course, it will take a while to digest the 2200 pages of the full report (it has a lot of starch!). Until I do, here are my first impressions from having…
Spring weather here in Israel was rather strange. Although winter with most of its precipitation should have been over, we had a few very rainy days. We're now in the midst of a heat wave with temperatures as much as 20°C higher than just a week before. In between there was a…
A very interesting paper recently appeared in nature . It describes the detection of a precursor eruption of a supernova progenitor more than a month before the supernova explosion itself. It is particularly interesting because this detection was not serendipitous—it was based on…
Last month I participated in EIKE's (Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie) conference on Climate Change. They video record the lectures, which means that mine is now online. I thought I'd share it with you. Have fun.
My wife and I had our kitchen renovated aaa. Since this involved breaking a few walls (and cutting out a new window), we knew it would raise a lot of dust. Mind you, here in the middle east houses are built from concrete and concrete blocks, not wood. To minimize the dust…
I was asked by quite a few people about my opinion on the BEST analysis of Richard Muller and his group in Berkeley. Since I didn’t want to keep my friends without an answer, I took a more careful look into the analysis. Here is what I think of it. [Edit 2019: I noticed that the…
After being busy with the submission of two research proposal and trying to stay afloat with the pretty heavy teaching load I have this semester, I decided I should take a short break and post something on my blog. I actually have quite a few things I have been wanting to write…
Estimate the future value of a retirement fund, including payment and yearly fund commissions.
Over the past two weeks, perhaps a dozen people asked me about the recently published paper of Shakun et al. in Nature. It allegedly demonstrates that the global temperature followed CO 2 around the warming associated with the last interglacial warming, between 20 to 10 thousand…
Estimate a retirement fund and the extra money lost to payment and yearly fund commissions.
Dear Rep. Adam Schiff (representing California's 29th district). Although I presently live outside the US, I am a registered voter in the 29th district which you represent. I kindly ask that you will drop your support of SOPA. The continuing infringement of intellectual property…
Out of curiosity, I opened a few weeks ago a poll asking the visitors of this site, what do they think is the primary cause of global warming. 429 people answered the poll (thanks to all of you!). The results can be summarized as follows. First, the visitors of this site have the…
A few days ago I had a very pleasant meeting with Andrew Bolt . He was visiting Israel and we met for an hour in my office. During the discussion, I mentioned that the writers of the recent IPCC reports are not very scientific in their conduct and realized that I should write…
An LC circuit is one which has a capacitor and an inductor connected to each other. It exhibits oscillations just like a mass on a spring (a harmonic oscillator). In fact, the analogy is quite accurate with the capacitor playing the role of the spring and the inductor playing the…
Peering into the hydrogen atom . The standard way to obtain the size of the hydrogen atom, also known as Bohr's radius, is to solve Schrödinger equation for the hydrogen atom. This is a somewhat detailed calculation requiring the usage of generalized Laguerre polynomials and…
Archived results of the original ScienceBits expertise and climate-change-cause poll.
A few weeks ago, the hacker/whistleblower has done it again. A new release of a large amount of e-mails from the same source (University of East Anglia) has surfaced in Russia. It is most likely from the same original batch because the last of the new e-mails is from 2009. Here…
Three weeks ago I visited the underground laboratory of Gran Sasso near l'Aquila. Little did I know that it would make headline news so soon, for "discovering" particles moving faster than the speed of light. Since a few people asked me what did I think of it, I decided to write…
The CLOUD collaboration from CERN finally had their results published in nature, showing that ionization increases the nucleation rate of condensation nuclei. The results are very beautiful and they demonstrate, yet again, how cosmic rays (which govern the amount of atmospheric…
Masada, the Dead Sea, the Messinian Salinity Crisis and Augustus Ceasar, all in one post.
After a long lull in activity, I decided it's about time I write an update about my thoughts on global warming. Here it is.
Cosmic Rays and Climate
This is the second of the three part article on the climatic role of the sun.
With the exception of those who have been living in a dark cave, it is well known that Earth has warmed over the 20 th century. Anyone who reads papers or watches TV knows that it is humans who are those responsible for this warming. According to most media sources, and…
I recently stumbled upon one of the most meaningless papers I have ever seen. The paper "proves" that the scientists advocating an anthropogenic greenhouse warming (AGW) are statistically more credible than the "unconvinced". Their main goal is to convince people that they should…
Last May I had a conference in the island of Vulcano. During the conference I had a half day excursion to the Island of Stromboli, where I climbed the mountain and got to see one of the most impressive geological phenomena one can see... Here are my impressions, photos and even a…
After being asked once too many about the climategate scandal, I decided it would save me some time if I simply wrote down my opinion about it.
There are 12, but that's not the main point of this blog entry...
(On the hebrew translation of the "Chilling Stars") לאור העובדה שלא מעט מקוראי האתר בעברית מתענינים בנושא של השפעת השמש על האקלים, מצאתי לנכון "לפרסם" תרגום לעברית של הספר "chilling stars" של הנריק סוונסמרק ונייג`ל קולדר, שהם ידידי. הספר "הכוכבים המקררים" יצא לאור זה עתה בהוצאת…
A week ago was Earth day, and just like the trend elsewhere, Israel joined with an hour long blackout. In principle, I am very much in favor of environmental awareness, and if it brings some, so be it. But if you ask me, overall, this event is a rather pointless gimmick. Why?
Please do not re-post whole content without permission. Would you like me to copy your site? You can re-post up to half an article, and make sure you add a link to the original page If you take images of which I am the originator, please save the file locally on your server and…
I few months ago, I had a paper accepted in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Since its repercussions are particularly interesting for the general public, I decided to write about it. It's called, using the "Oceans as a Calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing".
I recently returned from Lijiang (in Yunnan, China). One of my legs was a flight from Chengdu to Beijing, and it is certainly a flight I will never forget.
I recently attended the 3rd Space Climate Symposium which took place in Saariselkä, about 250 km north of the arctic circle in Finnish Lapland. Because of the prolonged solar minimum, my hopes were for a high auroral activity, but my expectations were not. Luckily, it was my…
A random and subjective walk in science and physics in particular.
Just recently, Sloan and Wolfendale published a paper in Environmental Research Letters, called "Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover". In the Institute of Physics Press Release, it said, "New research has deal a blow to the skeptics who argue that…
Realclimate.org continues with its same line of attack. Wishfulclimate.org writers try again and again to concoct what appears to be deep critiques against skeptic arguments, but end up doing a very shallow job. All in the name of saving the world. How gallant of them. This time…
By: Nir J. Shaviv & Ján Veizer Background Counter to claims by anthopogenic global warming enthusiasts, there is ample evidence to support the idea that cosmic rays do indeed affect climate (evidence will soon be summarized on this site). Thus, it is no surprise that we find in…
Jerusalem was under siege, again. Last time it was Bush. This time, it was snow because of which we had two snow days. So, I didn't have to teach and instead could build a snowman with my kids. I could also look at the rain radar, which appeared to exhibit a few interesting…
A few words about the longest strike ever in the Israeli Universities, a strike which ended last week. No science in this post. Sorry.
On my personal views of President Bush's visit to my humble town of Jerusalem. A few thoughts about quantum mechanics and the speed of sound.
Scalars : Scalars are mathematical entities which include only a magnitude (and no direction). Physical examples include mass and energy. Vectors : Vectors are mathematical entities which include both a magnitude and a direction . Note that the location of the vector (for…
A few days ago, I stayed in the Vatican (more about this one day symposium in another post). During the stay, I naturally visited St. Peter's Basilica. Near Bernini's Altar, I saw corpuscular rays. It may seem like some godly thing (quite appropriate for the location), but from a…
Let us study a somewhat more complex case of motion in a gravitational field. Instead of just the force of gravity, let us add a drag force which is proportional to the velocity, that is: $$ { F} = - { v}. $$ In other words, at every instant, the drag force is proportional to the…
Newton's laws and other laws of nature cannot be "derived" or "proved" like proofs in Math. Instead, physical laws are conjectured and then studied through experiments. These laws can be verified under different limits, in which case the conjected laws become accepted theory, or…
We have previously seen that the velocity does not transform from one reference frame to another using the standard Lorent transformation to 4-vectors, simply because the velocity is not a 4-vector. Similarly, the force is not one either (nor is it part of one, such as the…
Until now, we have avoided using forces in Relativity. We did so for a good reason. The definition of force even in classical mechanics is somewhat problematic, let alone in relativity. Nonetheless, let us try and see whether we can generalize classical relations to get a…
Chapter 12: Relativistic Dynamics
Chapter 11: Relativistic Kinematics
Chapter 6: Center of Mass & Angular Momentum
Chapter 3: Newton's laws, forces, equations of motion
Units are part of physical quantities. This implies that a physical variable will have a value and may include a dimension such as length, time, mass or combinations of them. For example, x = 5 meters , t = 3 seconds , v = 5/3 meter per second = 5/3 m/sec , m = 10 kg or E = 2 J…
I recently stumbled upon a nice black hole merger simulation . Since it is not in my habit of just regurgitating stuff I see on the internet, here is my added value. How can one estimate the quadrupole gravitational radiation of a binary? How close does the binary have to be for…
The first to seriously ponder about the nature of nature where the ancient Greeks. However, following the Aristotlian views, logic was more important than experiment. Since it is logical that heavier bodies fall faster to the ground, it necessarily is the case. For example, an…
Some necessary mathematical background
If you are reading these lines, you either accidentally stumbled upon or deliberately looked for Mechanics and Relativity course notes. These notes are used in the first year physics major's classical mechanics course. They were prepared over the course of 3 semesters whilst I…
Online notes for a physics major's classical mechanics and relativity course. The course notes are still in the making, and will be added during January / February 2008
The panel. From left to right: Prof. Colin Price, Prof. Nathan Paldor, Prof. Dan Yakir, and myself. On Sunday last week, a global warming debate was held at the Hebrew University, in front of a large public audience. The speakers included myself, and Prof. Nathan Paldor from the…
התחממות גלובלית, מי יודע מדוע וכמה? A short "open letter" in hebrew about global warming. To all my english readers, sorry. This is a one time quirk.
On of the interesting manmade climate phenomenon is that of Ship Tracks , whereby a ship, with all the exhaust particles it releases, can change the characteristics of clouds in its wake. Last week, I saw first hand how a boat can pollute so much.
A few astro photographs, including one of Saturn under horrible seeing!
A few weeks ago, while debating the issue of global warming with an alarmist, my colleague pointed out two facts which appear to be consistent with the "standard" anthropogenic scenario, but not the one I advocate, that the natural climate drivers are large and that Earth's…
One of the "scientific" highlights in Al Gore's movie is the discussion about the clear correlation between CO 2 and temperature, as is obtained in ice cores. He leads his audience to beleive that this correlation implies a clear CO 2 →ΔT link, but does it really?