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France: On the Edge of the Periphery 25 Aug 2013 | 04:52 pm
"The emotional side of me tends to imagine France, like the princess in the fairy stories or the Madonna in the frescoes, as dedicated to an exalted and exceptional destiny. Instinctively I have the f...
France: On the Edge of the Periphery 25 Aug 2013 | 04:52 pm
"The emotional side of me tends to imagine France, like the princess in the fairy stories or the Madonna in the frescoes, as dedicated to an exalted and exceptional destiny. Instinctively I have the f...
What Has QE Actually Accomplished? 21 Aug 2013 | 03:07 am
The market is obsessed with “tapering.” The assumption is that all the “juice” in the economy is somehow the product of the Federal Reserve's actions. The headline on the front page of the Wall Street...
Signs of the Top 17 Aug 2013 | 08:52 pm
The investment media seems obsessed with the question of whether the Fed will taper. The real question should be not about "tapering" but about credibility. What happens when fundamentals become the n...
The New Normal—Some Expensive Consequences 14 Aug 2013 | 01:52 am
Everybody talks about the weather, but there's not much we can do about it except make plans that take into account what mother nature may throw at us. For most of us that means planning for the next ...
We Can’t Take the Chance 10 Aug 2013 | 11:16 pm
What would it have been like to be in the decision-maker's seat at a central bank in the midst of the crisis in 2008-09? You'd know that you won't have the luxury of going back and making better decis...
Mind the (Expectations) Gap: Demographic Trends and GDP 7 Aug 2013 | 08:53 pm
For today's Outside the Box we have a very special research piece by Rob Arnott of Research Associates and his colleague Denis Chaves. Rob was with us at Leen's Lodge last week, and in the final eveni...
Can It Get Any Better Than This? 3 Aug 2013 | 08:14 pm
What in the world is going on?! As I write this letter from the Maine woods, the S&P 500 has just cleared 1,700 for the first time. The German DAX continues to set all-time highs above 8,400. The Unit...
The Blip 31 Jul 2013 | 01:36 am
This week's Outside the Box does not make me feel good, but author Benjamin Wallace-Wells does explain Robert Gordon’s views better than anyone I have seen. (And of course the whole point of Outside t...
A Lost Generation 27 Jul 2013 | 11:29 pm
It is pretty well established that a tax increase, especially an income tax increase, will have an immediate negative effect on the economy, with a multiplier of between 1 and 3 depending upon whose r...
