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Fine Print – What Wenzel et al Won’t Tell You 29 Apr 2013 | 01:27 am
After 200,000 page views on this blog and being dormant for the past few years, the time has come finally to make a post. The recent fracas about developers making large private donations to political...
Buyer Beware – Mortgage Rates Set To Rise! 11 Dec 2009 | 07:00 pm
In my previous post, I had a poll that asked what the biggest perceived supply risk to the real estate industry in Calgary over the next three year horizon. This was a randomized poll, meaning that t...
Calgary Resale Supply – Bankruptcy Threat Growing But Not A Problem Today 24 Nov 2009 | 12:16 pm
Much has been said about the growing amount of mortgage arrears in Alberta, but how much does that impact supply? As shown in previous graphs on this blog, the resale market has generally been rising...
Calgary Housing Affordability Update 23 Nov 2009 | 05:53 am
As noted in previous posts, Calgary’s affordability has been on an improving trend. RBC economics shows that the current affordability in Calgary is nearing cyclical lows. If one looks at the period...
Calgary CMHC Forecast Bias – From Optimist to Pessimist? 17 Nov 2009 | 02:42 pm
Studies have shown that there is a tendency among analysts to be consensus seeking. More often that not, analysts are benchmarked against their peers so an analyst may be rewarded even if his predict...
Calgary Housing Recovery Already Underway? 21 Oct 2009 | 04:08 pm
It’s been awhile since my last post, so I thought I would share some interesting information. The first graph illustrates the historical supply and new listings on a seasonally adjusted basis. Sales...
Calgary Resale House Price Model 22 Apr 2009 | 07:59 pm
The following graphs illustrate the historical relationship between absorption rate and house price changes in Calgary. As the absorption rate decreases, demand exceeds supply, and house prices rise....
Worth A Read – TD Report on “Demand-Driven” Alberta Overhang 8 Apr 2009 | 02:26 pm
This report is from TD economics. Below is an excerpt specific to Alberta, with a link to the full report at the end of the post: “Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its boom years...
Improving Affordability Trends in Calgary 30 Mar 2009 | 05:10 pm
Calgary housing affordability is now better than long term averages. This is due to three reasons: growth in household income falling interest rates and a correction in the housing market. The fo...
Calgary Econometric Rent Model 27 Mar 2009 | 05:25 pm
There are really three separate, but linked, real estate markets: the resale market, the new construction market and the rental market. The following graph shows the historic relationship (1973-2008...
